Photo: Ilustration, source: Covid.kemkes.go.id
Stramed, Authorities in 214 countries and territories have reported more than 5,271,000 novel coronavirus cases worldwide since China reported its first cases to the World Health Organization (WHO) in December.
The pandemic has reached every continent except Antarctica. The vast majority of cases and deaths are now outside mainland China, where the outbreak began.
In China, the Hubei province, home to 11 million people, has been hit hardest. Most of the infections are centered in its capital city, Wuhan, where the outbreak is believed to have begun at a wildlife market.
The rate of new cases in mainland China has slowed. More new cases of coronavirus are now being reported outside mainland China than within, as sustained local transmission is reported in Italy, Spain, the United States and elsewhere. The disease has hit the United States especially hard. About 1,610,000 cases have been reported in the country and 96,662 patients have died.
Unemployment rates in 43 states set record highs last month as the coronavirus pandemic forced nonessential businesses to close across the nation, according to federal data released Friday.
Rates rose in every state and the District of Columbia, compared to March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Similarly, the national unemployment rate soared to 14.7% last month, compared to 4.4% in March and a near 50-year low of 3.5% in February, before the outbreak hit the United States.
Nevada, which was slammed by the shuttering of its extensive casino and tourism industries, had the nation’s highest unemployment rate. It skyrocketed to 28.2% last month, up from 6.9% in March and 3.6% in February. Michigan and Hawaii had the next highest unemployment rates, at 22.7% and 22.3%, respectively.
a Bureau of Labor Statistics analysis suggests that several million of the 11.5 million people listed as employed, but not at work, should have been considered “unemployed on temporary layoff,” which would have increased the national unemployment rate and those for the states.
The problem prompted Connecticut, which was listed as having the lowest unemployment rate at 7.9%, to include a prominent note in its press release that said the federal data must be considered “inaccurate” and “severely underestimated.” Instead, the state estimates its true unemployment rate to be around 17.5%.
The worst could be over for the United States economy in about a month, according to a top adviser to President Trump. But the worst is going to be ugly.
Kevin Hassett, a senior White House economic adviser, told CNN’s Poppy Harlow Friday morningthat he thinks the unemployment rate, which hit 14.7% in April, may rise to 22% to 23% by May and edge up a bit in June before heading lower.
“June will be higher,” Hassett said. “That will be the turning point.”
He predicted that Congress and President Trump will agree on a so-called “fourth wave” of economic stimulus “sooner rather than later.”
Renewed worries about US-China trade tensions and strict new security laws in Hong Kong also may the market and economy too. The Senate wants to crack down on publicly traded Chinese companies listed in the United States that don’t agree to open their books for accounting reviews.
“China is getting close scrutiny and we are considering all options,” Hassett said. “We are not going to give China a pass.”
The pandemic has likely cost India’s film industry more than $330 million in lost box office revenue and canceled production shoots, according to Komal Nahta, a film trade analyst and television host of “ETC Bollywood Business.”
More than 1,800 movies were produced in India in 2018, according to Statista, a research and data website. That was more than any other country’s film industry that year.
While Hindi-language Bollywood films dominate the industry, there are other significant players, including the regional hub Tollywood (Telugu language), along with films made in Marathi, Bhojpuri and Bengali.
All told, box office revenue in India was estimated to have reached $1.4 billion in 2019, a nearly 12% increase over the year before, according to an annual report published by the consulting firm Ormax Media. Most of that came from Indian films; Hollywood represented just 15% of that amount.
Last year, for example, the action thriller “War” took in $13.7 million overseas, about a quarter of its total box office haul. But the coronavirus pandemic has completely upended any plans to release movies in the near future. In late March, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an unprecedented three-week shutdown for India’s 1.3 billion people that required everything to shut except for essential services, including health services and grocery stores.
Covid-19 has shocked the world by the speed of its spread, but it is also accelerating another global change in the balance of power — and not in America’s favor. The extent of the divide became clear on Tuesday during a vote at the World Health Organization annual assembly in Geneva, Switzerland, backing Europe’s conciliatory approach to China relating to an investigation into the outbreak.
Power had visibly ebbed away from the United States as its demand for a tougher approach was dismissed, a move that should sound alarm bells in Washington.
At the end of April, Argus estimated that the combined effects of agreed OPEC+ cuts and low prices will lower Russian oil firms’ earnings by $18-20 billion and starve the budget of as much as $50 billion in tax receipts. The one-two punch of low oil prices and losses from lockdowns have GDP on course to contract 4-6 percent or more for the year, dragging down revenues.
Financing deficits is theoretically not much of a problem thanks to a disciplined Central Bank and macroeconomic policy. With about $562 billion in foreign reserves in hand as of May 8, and a plan to raise $55-62 billion in debt issuances – twice the usual figure – the budget is safe for now.
Russia’s long-running pivot to Asia has reduced the country’s reliance on European consumption, but not ended it. Europe consumed about two-thirds of the roughly 5.4 million barrels per day Russia exported in 2019. Of the approximately 219 bcm of piped natural gas Russia exported in 2019, around 80 percent went to Europe.
If you apply those ratios to Russia’s oil and gas export earnings for last year, you’re looking at about $160 billion.
That nearly matches the entirety of Russia’s trade surplus – its principal source of reserves accumulation – at $164 billion for 2019. European energy demand is central to Russia’s macroeconomic policy.
EU oil demand peaked in 2006 at just under 15.2 million barrels per day (bpd), and was down 10 percent off its 2008 figures as of 2018 at 13.3 million bpd. Natural gas consumption hit 516.6 bcm in 2008, and was down 11.35 percent off that peak in 2018. That’s due to climate-friendly energy policies and Europe’s biggest structural problem: economic growth.
Eurozone GDP grew an average of 1.4 percent annually between 2010 and 2019. The post-crisis decision by European governments to impose austerity – cutting spending in order to reduce debt levels – proved disastrous.
Like Europe, China is constrained by the aftermath of the financial crisis and its policy response. Debt was the main cost of spending out of the financial crisis, cumulatively topping 300 percent of GDP last year – 15 percent of all debt globally, with the world’s highest corporate debt to GDP ratio at 156.7 percent. That’s a drag on demand.
High debt levels have created huge risks. S&P estimated in April that the sectors hardest hit account for roughly one-third of China’s domestic bank loans, with non-performing loans skyrocketing year-on-year. Current economic indicators suggest a long period of recovery and after a stingy start, Beijing is turning to more stimulus.
Pressure to pull supply chains from China creates long-term employment concerns. Exports now only account for roughly 20 percent of GDP, but exporting industries still matter a great deal. China’s slowdown has been broadly shared across emerging markets since 2010, increasing pressure to transition away from export-dependence to consumption. Consumption, however, relies on employment and wages.
Unemployment rates are likely higher than the official figures, and retail sales fell more than projected for April.
COVID-19 has accelerated the timeframe for “peak oil” based on demand destruction, weaker growth, changing investor calculi, and policy.
Oil demand might recover, but seems unlikely to ever grow much again. Prices will remain lower from the as yet incalculable effects of lost incomes, supply chain shifts, and job dislocation across the globe (Sources : www.cnn.com and www.thediplomat.com)