Indonesia’s 2026 Growth Outlook to 4.8%

KN. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has revised down Indonesia’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.8%, while projecting inflation to accelerate to 3.4%, as global energy shocks and trade uncertainty weigh on the outlook. In its March 2026 interim economic outlook, the OECD said Indonesia’s growth would moderate from an estimated 5.1% in 2025, reflecting external pressures including higher energy prices and geopolitical tensions.

Indonesian markets have been hit by the regional sell-off, with its stock market losing value as investors pulled money out amid rising uncertainty from the Iran war. Indonesia’s vulnerability comes from its exposure to global commodity prices and reliance on energy imports, meaning higher oil prices and disrupted supply routes increase costs for businesses and pressure economic stability. As a result, Indonesian companies, along with others in the region saw declines in market value as global risk sentiment worsened and investors became more cautious.

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