Glembert
KN. Malicious cyber activity and cyberattacks have surged in 2024, partly driven by the rapid advancement and low cost of relevant technologies, making attacks more sophisticated, faster to deploy, and more accessible for nefarious actors looking to wreak havoc and cause disruption. Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), in particular, have enhanced a range of offensive capabilities, enabling, for example, the rapid automated scanning for vulnerabilities in systems and networks, as well as facilitating the quick launch of attacks. Meanwhile, generative AI applications such as deepfake technology and text-to-speech systems are used to create more convincing social engineering attacks, such as phishing, which deceives victims into revealing sensitive information.
Quantum computing, though still facing technical challenges before businesses and governments can widely adopt it, is poised to transform the cybersecurity landscape dramatically. Its potential to easily break current encryption algorithms underscores the urgent need for advanced protection measures. This issue will be particularly critical for national security and strategic competition, where safeguarding sensitive information and critical infrastructure against quantum-enabled threats will become a top priority. The primary quantum computing powers currently are China and the United States, with EU countries, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, and South Korea also increasingly investing in the research and development of quantum computing. While Russia and Iran have also purportedly made strides in quantum computing, in 2023, a quantum processor produced and unveiled by the Iranian Army ended up being a 700 USD ARM-based development board available to buy on Amazon.
Quantum computing represents a fundamentally different approach to computing than classical computing, offering exponential processing capabilities useful for specific tasks, including complex calculations, such as optimization problems, elaborate simulations, and cryptography. Instead of the binary ‘bits’ used in classical computing, quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in multiple states simultaneously due to the quantum mechanics principle of superposition. While in classical computing, processing happens linearly or in parallel, processing in quantum computing occurs through quantum states, making certain calculations exponentially faster than in classical computing – even when considering the strides in classical computing with regard to graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI. Quantum computing could thus, for example, simulate molecular behavior and biochemical reactions, potentially reducing drug development timelines from years to days, but could also be used for the complete optimization of military logistics and resource allocation.
Quantum computing is improving rapidly, with physical qubit counts doubling every one to two years since 2018. In October 2019, for example, Google presented its 54-qubit processor, named Sycamore, that performed a target computation in 200 seconds, which, according to Google, would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10,000 years to perform. In 2024, IBM scientists created advanced and efficient error-correcting code, ten times better than previous methods. Error-correcting code will be critical for further progress in quantum computing as it protects quantum information from errors arising from disturbances or imperfections in quantum hardware. Meanwhile, researchers from the University of California, Riverside, developed a new superconductor that may address some key challenges in quantum computing, particularly in terms of stability, scalability, and decoherence reduction.
Quantum computing will have various disruptive effects in the security and defense realm as it becomes more powerful. Most notably, if quantum computing capabilities develop further, the quantum computing algorithm, known as Shor’s algorithm, could break widely used public-key cryptography methods, such as RSA and ECC, necessitating the rapid development and implementation of post-quantum cryptography (PQC). Technically, if PQC is not implemented, malicious nonstate actors and foreign hostile powers could gain access to sensitive government communications, personal data, and critical infrastructure through quantum computing. In a hypothetical war with China, for example, this could mean that China decrypts sensitive government communications and military coordination. Another nefarious use case would be leveraging quantum computing to decrypt keys that protect the critical infrastructure of the United States, taking over control systems, and disrupting energy grids, transportation, and other essential services. PQC exists and continues to improve. In August, the U.S. Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) released its principal set of encryption algorithms designed to withstand cyberattacks powered by quantum computing.
Nevertheless, the urgency of moving to PQC seems not to have reached most private industry or government agencies yet. This is likely because quantum computing has not yet reached the capability of breaking widely used encryption algorithms, giving a false sense of security. Regardless, companies like IBM and Google and government agencies like NIST and certain government communications systems from the Chinese government are already ready for quantum-age cyberattacks. Despite quantum computers that are able to break current encryption algorithms not being fully realized yet, organizations should already begin PQC migration. “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” (HNDL) attacks are already suspected to be happening. These types of attacks collect encrypted data now, with the intention of decrypting it in the future once the cybercriminal has the quantum computing capability to do so. In August, U.S. National Cyber Director Harry Coker warned that adversaries already use “store now and break later” strategies. For example, Russian state-backed hackers may steal encrypted communications from government agencies now, which could be decrypted and compromise U.S. national security once they have the quantum computing capability to decrypt these communications. While some government agencies and highly sensitive industries have already started to implement PQC, mainstream preparation is not widespread. NIST is working with the private sector to understand obstacles to implementing PQC.
Globally and across industries, organizations faced an average of 1,636 cyberattacks per week during the second quarter of 2024, representing a 30 percent increase compared to the same quarter in 2023, according to Check Point Research. The three most targeted sectors in order were research and education, government and military, and healthcare. Cyberattacks by malicious groups and state entities have significant economic ramifications. According to IBM, the global average cost of a data breach reached $4.88 million in 2024, a 10 percent increase from 2023. The security implications of cyberattacks are vast: they have been used in industrial espionage by hostile foreign powers, undermining competitive advantages in security-critical industries, as well as perpetrating election interference, targeting critical infrastructure, and compromising sensitive defense and military information. Quantum computing could supercharge these efforts and, subsequently, preparations must crucially and presently be underway, regardless of the technical hurdles it still faces.
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