Glembert
KN. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris was named the Democratic presidential candidate. Her campaign quickly raised $200 million and enlisted 170,000 volunteers. With 100 days until the election, a Reuters/Ipsos poll on July 23 showed Harris leading Trump by two points. Trump had previously led against Joe Biden, but after Biden withdrew and Harris replaced him, Trump’s lead began to erode.
The list of candidates to run with Kamala Harris, the presumptive Democratic U.S. presidential nominee, narrowed with North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer both out. The high-stakes decision has taken center-stage since Vice President Harris became the Democratic frontrunner for the November election just over a week ago after President Joe Biden ended his White House bid. Vice presidential nominees can be used to balance a presidential candidate’s ticket to appeal to a wider swath of voters, and Harris is weighing a list of mostly white, male candidates.
United States Vice President Kamala Harris has erased former President Donald Trump’s lead in the race for the White House, with the Democratic and Republican standard-bearers now locked in a dead heat, newly released polling shows. Harris has closed the gap with Trump both nationwide and in key battleground states since becoming the de facto Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s exit from the 2024 presidential race, according to a series of polls published. Harris is ahead of Trump in four key battleground states, while the former president is ahead in two, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of registered voters. Harris leads Trump in Michigan by 11 percentage points and by two points in Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada, according to the poll.
President Biden’s historic announcement that he was dropping his 2024 reelection bid has shaken up a race that had mostly stayed static until the past month. Polls have begun to trickle out in the days since Biden’s decision, offering clues to what a contest between Vice President Harris, the likely Democratic nominee, and former President Trump will look like. Overall, they have shown good news for Harris and the Democrats. In several polls, Harris has performed at least somewhat better than Biden did against Trump before the incumbent stepped aside. But election forecasts remain offline while analysts recalibrate their models for a new match-up, meaning time is needed to better understand what these numbers signify for November. Scott Tranter, the director of data science for Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), said he could make an argument that either Trump or Harris is in the preferable position in the race, underscoring how up in the air the race is.
In an online discussion titled “Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris: The Impact on the Indonesian Economy”, INDEF Senior Economist Iman Sugema said that nothing fundamentally changes once the election results are announced. He noted that market reactions are often based on psychology and expectations, leading to celebration regardless of the outcome. “The victory can be accurately predicted about a week before the campaign ends,” Iman said. Meanwhile, INDEF Center for Digital Economy and SMEs researcher Izzudin Al Farras said that different economic policy paradigms among U.S. presidential candidates require Indonesia to anticipate potential effects on its economy.
INDEF Center of Industry, Trade, and Investment researcher Ahmad Heri Firdaus said that whoever becomes U.S. President, it should be used as an opportunity to expand cooperation. He went on to say that if Donald Trump wins the presidential election, the trade war between the United States and China will most likely resume, resulting in a shift in U.S. imports based on country of origin.
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP) Chairwoman, Indonesian 5th President Megawati Soekarnoputri expressed her support for Kamala Harris to run in the U.S. Presidential Election to replace Joe Biden as the U.S. Democratic Party’s candidate. Megawati said that she sent a letter to Kamala, which included a prayer for Kamala to win.
Head of Retail Research Sinarmas Sekuritas Ike Widiawati said that the presidential election in the United States has the potential to affect energy sector stocks in Indonesia, such as coal, oil, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO)—given the policies of presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who have promised to increase import tariffs on products from China.
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