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KN-WASHINGTON, The United States can only confirm that about a third of Iran’s missile arsenal has been destroyed since the conflict between the US and Israel approached its one-month mark, according to five sources familiar with US intelligence reports. A Pentagon official said Iranian missile and drone attacks have decreased by about 90% since the start of the conflict. Furthermore, the United States Central Command said more than 66% of Iran’s missile, drone, and military ship production facilities have been damaged or destroyed. The condition of about a third remains undetermined, but is believed to have been damaged, destroyed, or buried by airstrikes targeting underground tunnels and bunkers.
As quoted by Reuters, the same source also stated that a similar assessment applies to Iran’s drone capabilities, with about a third confirmed to have been disabled. The assessment indicates that while most Iranian missiles have been destroyed or rendered inaccessible, Tehran still has a significant weapons stockpile and could potentially recover some of the buried or damaged missiles after the conflict ends.
This intelligence finding contrasts with President Donald Trump’s public statements that Iran has only a small number of missiles remaining. “The threat from Iranian missiles and drones remains a risk to US operations in the strategic Strait of Hormuz,” Trump said.
The US government asserts that the goal of its military operation is to weaken Iran’s military capabilities, including destroying its naval fleet and missile systems, and preventing the country from acquiring nuclear weapons. The military operation, known as “Epic Fury,” is said to have struck more than 10,000 Iranian military targets and sunk approximately 92% of the country’s major warships.
US Representative Seth Moulton cast doubt on claims that Iran’s military capabilities have been drastically weakened, suggesting that Tehran likely still retains some of its capabilities and has not yet deployed its full arsenal.
Israeli military officials estimate that Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles before the war, with more than 335 missile launchers neutralized, representing approximately 70% of its launch capacity.
Nicole Grajewski, an Iranian missile expert at Sciences Po, believes the US government is likely overestimating the impact of the attack on Iran’s military capabilities, given that the country is still capable of launching attacks from the Bid Kaneh military facility, which had previously been heavily bombed.
Cersia international issues analyst Tommy CK stated that US intelligence reports to Trump are likely incorrect, as they have been proven unable to report Iran’s military strength to Trump. This has led Trump, Marco Rubio, and the Pentagon to actively promote the idea of Iran’s weakening.
“In fact, Iran is still demonstrating its military capabilities. The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense reported that Iran fired 15 ballistic missiles and 11 drones into its territory last Thursday. Furthermore, Iran also reportedly fired long-range missiles at the US-UK military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean,” said Tommy CK, adding that 13 US military bases in the Gulf region have been severely damaged by Iranian attacks, and 14 other military bases have been largely abandoned by US troops for fear of being hit by ballistic missiles and drones from Iran, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and the Iraqi Blood Guard Brigades.
Photo by, RFE
Glembert
