Impact of the U.S. Government Shutdown on Indonesia

KN. The U.S. federal government officially shut down at midnight, after the Senate failed to reach a budget agreement. This marks the first shutdown in nearly seven years.

Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) Director Bhima Yudhistira highlighted that U.S. government shutdowns have occurred multiple times since 1980, with significant ones during Trump’s first term. The longest lasted 36 days in January 2019. Bhima warned that this could impact Indonesia’s economy, particularly its export performance. He advised the public to remain calm, maintain emergency cash funds, reduce reliance on imports, and minimize consumption of non-essential goods, preparing for potential economic challenges ahead.

The rupiah closed stronger against the U.S. dollar at the start of the month. Refinitiv data showed that by Wednesday’s close, the currency had risen 0.36 percent to IDR16,600 per US$, marking four consecutive days of gains. The rally was driven by a weaker U.S. dollar index and the release of domestic inflation data.

The dollar index (DXY) extended its four-day decline after the U.S. government shut down for the first time since 2018, following a funding deadlock with the opposition Democratic Party. The shutdown raised market concerns as public services, including the release of the monthly jobs report, risk suspension. With the uncertainty, investors are turning more to private labor data, such as the ADP report, for guidance.

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