Rupiah Gains as Trade Optimism Offsets Global Tensions,Indonesia’s Exports Hold Strong, but Geopolitical Tensions Threaten 2026 Growth

KN. Rupiah closed stronger on Tuesday afternoon, snapping higher despite lingering global risks, as positive trade headlines and easing uncertainty around US monetary leadership lifted sentiment. The rupiah appreciated 44 points against the US dollar to Rp 16,754 on Feb. 3, from Rp 16,798 previously. The currency had at one point strengthened by as much as 45 points during the session.

Ibrahim Assuaibi, director of Traze Andalan Futures, said the rupiah’s gains came even as global uncertainty persisted, including unresolved geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran.

Indonesia’s trade surplus held steady at $2.51 billion in December 2025, extending a 68-month streak, but economists caution that sustaining export momentum in 2026 will be challenging amid geopolitical tensions and rising protectionism.

Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (INDEF) Director Eko Listiyanto said global trade conditions remain fragile, with unresolved geopolitical tensions likely to continue weighing on export and import performance.

“Amid this situation, Indonesia must continue to protect its key export destinations so that export growth can be maintained. Stability in export markets is crucial to sustaining national trade performance amid global uncertainty,” Eko said

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