Glembert
KN. The U.S. first began supplying long-range variants of its Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), to Ukraine in March with the caveat that their use inside Russian territory be strictly limited. Since their arrival, Ukrainian officials have pled for these restrictions to be lifted, arguing that it placed their forces at a disadvantage. The long-awaited U.S. decision paved the way for a similar authorization for expanded use of the British supplied Storm Shadow cruise missile.
The Kremlin was quick to condemn the decision and took the dramatic step of amending its nuclear doctrine, a move Putin had telegraphed in a televised September meeting. Although the updated language leaves significant room for interpretation, it is clearly intended as a veiled threat to Ukraine’s nuclear-armed partners. Perhaps aware of the waning credibility of its nuclear saber rattling, which began on the first day of the Russian invasion back in February 2022, the Kremlin sought to underscore its deterrent message by introducing a new type of intermediate-range ballistic missile to the conflict in a strike against the city of Dnipro on Thursday.
Three days after the ATACMS decision, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced a new Ukraine security assistance package of up to $275 million. The package will include ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, and anti-tank weapons. Secretary Austin also announced that the U.S. would begin supplying anti-personnel mines to reinforce Ukrainian defenses. Given Russia’s reliance on dismounted infantry to lead its ground assaults, this measure could be as impactful on the battlefield as the easing of restrictions on ATACMS use. Land mines have been used to devastating effect by both sides in the war, however the U.S. had previously refused to supply them to Kyiv due to their potential to cause civilian casualties. To mitigate these concerns, the U.S. chose to only provide Ukraine with non-persistent mines, which are designed to become inert after a preset time.
Ukraine’s military was quick to capitalize on the eased restrictions on the use of Western missiles. On Tuesday, the 1,000th day since Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian forces fired a barrage of ATACMS ballistic missiles at a munitions depot in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast. The following day, reports emerged that Storm Shadow missiles had been used to strike a Russian command post in Kursk Oblast. These strikes are illustrative of how Kyiv may employ these missiles under the expanded authorizations. Both strikes targeted logistics or command and control nodes close to the Kursk salient, which Ukrainian forces seized during an audacious cross-border offensive in August. With Russian and North Korean troops preparing for a counteroffensive against the Kursk pocket, deep strikes against targets like these are intended to disrupt the impending attack and relieve pressure on Ukrainian defenders. Use of the missiles near the Kursk salient has led some to speculate the Biden administration has restricted the missile’s use to this section of the front, however, Ukrainian officials have been cagey on the subject.
Expanding Ukraine’s ability to affect military targets inside Russia will complicate Russian planning, but the easing of restrictions will not by itself change the course of the war. Having anticipated this decision, Russian forces have hardened potential targets like Kursk military airbase and relocated some critical equipment outside of the missiles’ ranges. Furthermore, several of the missiles fired on Tuesday were reportedly intercepted by Russian air defenses. While this is not surprising in and of itself, it highlights the critical issue of scarcity and the need to maximize the effectiveness of each strike. The longer-range variants of the ATACMS missiles are no longer in production in the U.S., though the UK Storm Shadow and a potential French decision to authorize their SCALP missile inside Russia would partially alleviate this.
The political impacts of this week’s decisions by the Biden administration may prove to be more impactful than their effects on the battlefield. Loosening the shackles on Western long-range weapons has put additional pressure on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to supply Ukraine with Taurus missiles. Despite the initial fanfare surrounding Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech at the outset of the full-scale invasion, and Germany’s status as the second largest material supporter of Ukraine, Scholz only agreed to provide Ukraine with Leopard tanks after the U.S. agreed to send its own M1 Abrams tanks.
It is also unclear if the recent U.S. policy changes were coordinated with the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Donald Trump has made it clear that he wants the war in Ukraine to end. He has signaled a willingness to cut off military aid to force Ukraine to begin negotiating an end to the conflict. Despite record casualties in recent months, Russian ground forces have continued to seize territory in the Donbas. Russian air attacks, like the massive attacks observed this week, continue to degrade Ukrainian critical infrastructure and terrorize the civilian population. With Russian troops augmented by North Korean soldiers beginning a counteroffensive in Kursk, Putin likely feels momentum is firmly in his hands making pressing his battlefield advantage a more attractive option than meeting Kyiv at the negotiating table. The Russian military, however, is not without its own problems. Beset by manpower and equipment shortages, Russian forces have been unable to achieve a significant breakthrough. Though it is difficult to say whether these limitations are being accurately reported to Putin. With winter conditions already affecting the battlefield, Russia’s pace of advance may slow in the coming months, offering a window of opportunity for the Trump administration to push for dialogue.
admin
