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By: Erlangga Pratama
KH-Tehran, Iran’s war against the United States and Israel broke out on February 28, 2026, amidst negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. Joint US and Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejjad, Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani; Ali Shamkhani (Head of the National Defense Council); Mohammad Pakphour (Commander of the IRGC); Amir Nadzirzadeh (Defense Minister); Abdolrahim Mousavi (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces); and Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib. Esmail Khatib was killed in a “targeted attack” by Israeli forces in Tehran, and the commander of Iran’s Basij force, Gholamreza Soleimani, was killed.
The IDF previously said Khatib was appointed to his position in 2021 by Iran’s late supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in an attack targeting top Iranian officials at the start of the war on February 28. Iran then retaliated by attacking its Gulf neighbors and targeting ships attempting to pass through the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz.
In response, Iran launched a wave of attacks on military bases used by the United States in the Middle East, inflicting an estimated $800 million (Rp13.5 trillion) in damage during the first two weeks of the war, according to a report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) think tank and BBC analysis indicating that most of the damage occurred during Iran’s initial retaliatory strikes, just weeks after the US and Israel launched their military operations.
Defense Department officials reportedly briefed members of Congress that the first six days of the war cost $11.3 billion (Rp191.6 trillion). The first 12 days, however, cost $16.5 billion (Rp279.7 trillion), according to CSIS data. The Pentagon is now requesting an additional US$200 billion (Rp3,391 trillion) in funding for the war.
This is due to the estimated US$800 million in damage to US military infrastructure, a figure higher than previously reported, which provides a glimpse into the enormous costs Washington will face as the conflict drags on. Iran’s retaliatory attacks targeted US air defense systems and satellite communications facilities, including in Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and several other countries in the Middle East.
Most of the damage was caused by an attack on a US radar, part of the Thaad missile defense system at an air base in Jordan. The AN/TPY 2 radar system is valued at approximately US$485 million (Rp8.2 trillion), according to a CSIS review of US Department of Defense budget documents. The air defense system is used to intercept long-range ballistic missiles.
The Iranian attacks also caused an estimated US$310 million (Rp5.2 trillion) in damage to buildings, facilities, and other infrastructure at US bases and military bases used by American forces in the region. According to satellite imagery analysis by BBC Verify, Iran has also attacked at least three air bases more than once. Satellite imagery shows three air bases—Ali Al Salim Base in Kuwait, Al Udeid Base in Qatar, and Prince Sultan Base in Saudi Arabia—having sustained new damage at various stages of the conflict.
More extensive damage to Thaad systems was observed at US bases in the UAE and Jordan. The extent of the losses is unknown. The deterioration of these systems reportedly forced the US to relocate Thaad components from South Korea to the Middle East. The damage from Iran’s retaliatory strikes represents only a fraction of the total cost to the US of the war.
Tehran’s precision strikes targeted specific US assets, as Russia reportedly shared intelligence with Tehran about the presence of American forces in the region.
The US has also lost 13 military personnel since President Donald Trump joined Israel in launching attacks on Iran on February 28. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (Hrana) estimates the total death toll is approaching 3,200, including 1,400 civilians.
*Provoking Gulf States to Engage in War*
As is typical of the US, which always “plays a gang,” Donald Trump and his colleagues also provoked several countries to assist the US and Israel in fighting Iran. These US efforts largely failed after Spain, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy refused to join in support of Trump’s selfish stance. Consequently, the US ultimately persuaded or provoked several Gulf countries to join an alliance against Iran, aided by Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi Blood Guards against the US and Israel.
One example of US provocation was evident when an American-operated Patriot air defense battery likely fired an interceptor missile involved in an early morning explosion that injured dozens of civilians and damaged homes in Bahrain, a US ally, 10 days after the war against Iran began. This was revealed according to an analysis by academic researchers reviewed by Reuters on Sunday (March 22, 2026). On the day of the incident, US Central Command reported on its platform X that an Iranian drone had struck a residential area in Bahrain.
Previously, both Bahrain and Washington blamed an Iranian drone attack for the March 9, 2026, explosion, which the Gulf kingdom said injured 32 people, including children, some seriously. Bahrain itself is a small but strategic country on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway carrying about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies.
The Patriot system, manufactured by Raytheon (part of RTX Corp), is the US Army’s primary medium-range missile and aircraft interceptor system and forms the backbone of US and allied air defenses.
The Bahraini government did not specify whether the missile was fired by its own forces or by the US. However, Middlebury Institute researchers Sam Lair, Michael Duitsman, and Professor Jeffrey Lewis concluded with a moderate to high degree of confidence that the missile was likely launched from a US Patriot battery about 7 km southwest of Mahazza. This conclusion is based on analysis of open visual and commercial satellite imagery, and is not contradicted by other experts who reviewed it.
Meanwhile, the Middlebury analysis also used video showing the Patriot missile passing low in the sky before diving and exploding about 1.3 seconds later. A digital forensics expert confirmed there was no indication the video was fake.
Researchers traced the video’s location to the city of Riffa and the missile’s path to a US Patriot battery. They also found that the location had been in use since at least 2009. They concluded the missile likely exploded in mid-air. Possible causes include an attempt to intercept a low-flying drone or an explosion from the missile’s warhead and fuel. If the interception attempt occurred in a residential area, the analysis suggests it would pose a high risk to civilians. Although the Bahraini government claimed the missile successfully intercepted the drone, researchers considered this less likely due to the lack of evidence of the drone’s presence.
The damage was concentrated in several streets in Mahazza, with missile fragments spreading approximately 120 meters. Audio video analysis also indicated the explosion location corresponded to a distance of approximately 7.4 km from the recording point. While Patriot missile failures are rare, similar cases have occurred, including in 2007 in Qatar.
Another example of provocation is Qatar’s declaration of “persona non grata” for military and security attachés at the Iranian Embassy. They were asked to leave Doha within 24 hours. According to a written statement from the Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Thursday (March 19), the decision was made because Qatar has been repeatedly targeted by Iranian airstrikes, which are considered violations of the principles of international law, Security Council Resolution No. 2817, and good neighborliness. The decision was announced following an Iranian missile attack on the Ras Laffan gas production site in Qatar.
Among the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia stands out. This country ranks 25th in the world with a power index of 0.4473. This position puts Saudi Arabia significantly ahead of other Gulf countries. The United Arab Emirates is next, ranked 54th in the world with a power index of 1.0188. Qatar is next, ranked 71st with a power index of 1.4096. Bahrain ranks 75th with a power index of 1.6731, followed by Kuwait at 76th with a power index of 1.7161. Meanwhile, Oman ranks 86th in the world with a power index of 1.8823.
The United Arab Emirates is the second strongest among the Gulf states in this data. The country ranks 54th in the world with a power index of 1.0188. While its military strength is still below that of Saudi Arabia, the UAE still stands out with 65,000 active troops and a military budget of US$23.48 billion. In terms of defense equipment, the UAE has 99 fighter jets, 30 attack helicopters, 354 tanks, 8,982 armored vehicles, 165 self-propelled artillery pieces, and 49 mobile rocket projectors. This data demonstrates the UAE’s considerable military strength, with a strong foundation of defense equipment modernization, particularly in the air and land sectors.
Qatar ranks 71st in the world with a power index of 1.4096. Although its military strength is not as large as that of some other Gulf states, Qatar remains attractive due to its substantial military budget. Qatar has 26,550 active troops with a military budget of US$11.95 billion. In terms of defense equipment, Qatar has 115 fighter jets, 24 attack helicopters, 62 tanks, 5,576 armored vehicles, 46 self-propelled artillery pieces, and 16 mobile rocket launchers. Qatar’s most prominent feature is its air power. It even has more fighter jets than the UAE.
Kuwait is ranked 76th in the world with a power index of 1.7161. This position places Kuwait at the bottom of the rankings compared to its fellow Gulf states, although its military capacity is still not insignificant. Kuwait has 78,000 active troops with a military budget of US$7.98 billion. The country also has 47 fighter jets, 16 attack helicopters, 367 tanks, 7,472 armored vehicles, 51 self-propelled artillery pieces, and 27 mobile rocket launchers.
Oman ranks 86th in the world with a power index of 1.8823, making it the lowest-ranked country among the six Gulf states compared in this data. Oman has a relatively large military force of 100,000 active troops. Its military budget is recorded at US$8.36 billion. In terms of defense equipment, Oman has 29 fighter jets, no attack helicopters in this data, 264 tanks, 11,380 armored vehicles, and 24 self-propelled artillery pieces.
Bahrain has the smallest military among the six Gulf states in this data. Bahrain ranks 75th in the world with a power index of 1.6731. The country has 18,400 active troops and a military budget of US$0.99 billion. In terms of equipment, Bahrain has 28 fighter jets, 34 attack helicopters, 150 tanks, 5,196 armored vehicles, 38 self-propelled artillery pieces, and 18 mobile rocket launchers.
It seems that Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar are starting to be affected by US provocations and are likely to be involved in war.
*War is still a long way off and a global crisis is imminent*
Iran continues to retaliate with drone and missile attacks targeting Israel, Jordan, Iraq, and the Gulf states where US military assets are located. Unlike Israel, which openly accepts aid from allies like the United States, Iran employs a more secretive and complex approach. One answer was revealed by a 2013 Reuters investigative report. In the report, Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was said to lead a vast business network through an organization called Setad (Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order). The value of this business empire was estimated at US$95 billion, or around Rp1,530 trillion.
Setad itself was established under the will of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, before his death in 1989. Initially, the organization aimed to manage property, the proceeds of which were then distributed to aid the poor and war veterans.
According to a Reuters report, this function changed over time. Under Khamenei’s leadership, Setad developed into a business giant with investments in various strategic sectors. From finance, oil, telecommunications, to the pharmaceutical and livestock industries.
Setad’s uniqueness lies in its relatively secretive operations and minimal oversight. An Iranian lawyer who later left the country, Naghi Mahmoudi, told Reuters that no institution could truly audit or question the organization’s business activities.
Although there is no direct evidence that Khamenei uses Setad for personal gain, Reuters noted that the organization’s existence has strengthened the supreme leader’s position and power. In fact, US authorities once estimated the total wealth associated with it could reach US$200 billion, although this claim was denied by the Iranian government.
From the IraniPredicting the End of the Iran vs. the United States and Israel Waran government’s perspective, Setad remains positioned as an institution focused on public welfare. Local Iranian media reported in 2014 that approximately 90% of the organization’s profits are allocated to social programs.
Iran itself has claimed it is ready to engage the US and Israel in a protracted war. Meanwhile, in recent developments, the US has begun maneuvering and framing a narrative that it will soon win the war, while on the other hand, it wants to negotiate with Iran. Iran has closed the door to negotiations.
*The author is an observer of international affairs. IBP contributor and alumni of the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, University of Jember and postgraduate in Strategic Intelligence Studies, University of Indonesia
Photo: ANTARA News Megapolitan
